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Generating Multi-Asset Arbitrage-Free Scenario Trees with Global Optimization

2013

Simulation models of economic, financial and business risk factors are widely used to assess risks and support decision-making. Extensive literature on scenario generation methods aims at describing some underlying stochastic processes with the least number of scenarios to overcome the "curse of dimensionality". There is, however, an important requirement that is usually overlooked when one departs from the application domain of security pricing: the no-arbitrage condition. We formulate a moment matching model to generate multi-factor scenario trees satisfying no-arbitrage restrictions with a minimal number of scenarios and without any distributional assumptions. The resulting global optimi…